一个改进的混合型海气耦合模式：ENSO模拟   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

朱杰顺  周广庆  Rong-Hua ZHANG 《大气科学》2009,33(4):657-669

通过在中国科学院大气物理研究所热带太平洋环流模式与一个统计大气模式所建立的混合型海气耦合模式中引入次表层上卷海温非局地参数化方案, 对比分析了次表层上卷海温对耦合模式模拟结果的影响, 表明在引入次表层上卷海温非局地参数化方案前耦合模式模拟的SSTA最大变率中心位于日界线附近赤道南北狭窄范围内, 而在赤道东太平洋及南美沿岸一带变率过低, 周期呈准2年振荡。改进后, 耦合模式模拟结果的分布不论在东西方向亦或南北方向与观测更为相近, 振荡周期为4年左右, 而且还能模拟出观测中ENSO振荡的季节依赖性特征。进一步分析改进的耦合模式中海气耦合特征, 表明 “延迟振子” 理论、 “西太平洋振子” 理论、 “充电-放电振子” 理论及 “平流-反射” 理论所揭示的一些规律在该模式中都能被不同程度地描述出来, 这说明在实际的ENSO循环过程中, 可能有多种机制在同时起作用。  相似文献   

垂直-倾斜对流一体化参数化方案的实现及数值试验   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

费建芳  伍荣生  黄小刚  王元  程小平 《气象学报》2010,68(2):162-172

在Kuo-Anthes垂直对流参数化方案和Nordeng倾斜对流参数化方案基础上,提出了垂直-倾斜对流一体化参数化方案,并引入MM5模式中.利用该方案对2008年1月28-29日发生在中国南方的一次暴雪过程和2005年"海棠"台风过程进行了数值模拟,模拟结果表明,此次暴雪过程在垂直方向主要表现对流稳定状态,但在对流层低层始终存在条件件对称不稳定层,并且当条件性对称不稳定区向高层发展时,伴随着强上升运动作为触发机制,引发条件性对称不稳定能量的释放,产生更多的对流降水,使模拟的总降水量与实况更加一致.条件性对称不稳定的发展加强与降雪强度、辐合辐散和上升运动变化一致,条件性对称不稳定是造成暴雪发展加强的主要机制之一.通过对"海棠"台风72 h的模拟表明,条件性对称不稳定主要发生在台风的低层,且其水平分布呈螺旋状结构.条件性对称不稳定效应对台风路径影响较小,但对台风强度影响较大,在模式中考虑垂直-倾斜对流一体化参数化方案后,与仅考虑垂直积云对流参数化方案相比,72 h模拟的平均台风中心最低气压降低了3 hPa,最大达8 hPa.在模式中考虑条件性对称不稳定的影响,可使模式台风中上层的暖心结构更加明显,上升运动和对流性降水增强,对流释放的更多凝结潜热使台风得到进一步加强.  相似文献   

北京夏季空气质量的气象指数预报   总被引：7，自引：2，他引：5       下载免费PDF全文

杨元琴  王继志  侯青  王亚强 《应用气象学报》2009,20(6):649-655

该文提出一种参数化预报方法,制作北京及其周边地区夏季空气质量气象条件指数预报。采用2000-2007年7-9月北京市观象台大气成分 (PM₁₀) 逐日观测资料和华北区域气象站网加密地面观测及探空信息,分析北京地区夏季奥运会历史同期与高污染过程 (PM₁₀浓度>150μg/m3) 关系密切的敏感气象要素和变量。引入适应度函数分级方法,计算北京周边不同观测站可能形成污染向北京输送的权重,建立北京夏季空气质量气象条件参数PLAM (parameters linking air-quality and meteorology) 预报模型。PLAM指数给出北京局地污染气象条件的客观定量诊断和预测,并可指示周边地区有利 (或不利) 于污染向北京输送的强度和方位。夏季“静稳型”气象条件参数化PLAM方法为北京奥运气象保障任务实时提供预报产品,分别用PM₁₀及可吸入颗粒物指数 (API) 对2008年7-8月PLAM逐日预报进行检验,相关系数达到0.001显著性水平。  相似文献   

对称不稳定对梅雨锋暴雨影响的数值模拟   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2       下载免费PDF全文

费建芳  伍荣生  黄小刚  王元  程小平 《水科学进展》2010,21(3):349-356

在Kuo-Anthes垂直对流参数化方案和Nordeng倾斜对流参数化方案基础上,提出了垂直-倾斜对流一体化参数化方案,在引入MM5模式后,对1999年6月发生在长江流域的一次大尺度带状强降水过程进行了数值模拟及敏感性试验。结果表明:在模式中引入倾斜对流参数化方案,可有效改进模式模拟的降水强度和位置,加快形成锋面附近的垂直环流并使之得到增强,模拟结果更接近实况。同时也表明,在模拟和预报具有对称不稳定的天气系统时,在模式中考虑倾斜对流参数化方案是必要的。  相似文献   

积云对流参数化方案模拟我国东南沿海及台湾海峡地区降水的适用性          下载免费PDF全文

谭红建  蔡榕硕  齐庆华 《应用海洋学学报》2020,39(1):122-129

我国东南沿海及台湾海峡地区地形和下垫面情况复杂,积云对流活动强烈,这给该地区降水的模拟和预测带来很大困难。为探讨不同积云对流参数化方案在我国东南沿海及台湾海峡地区的适用性,选择了4种参数化方案(Anthes-Kuo方案、Arakawa-Schubert方案、Fritsch-Chappell方案和MIT-Emanuel方案),基于区域气候模式RegCM 4.0分别模拟了该地区的降水情况,并选用了与模式分辨率相当的TRMM(Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission,0.25°×0.25°)月平均降水资料进行验证。模拟结果表明,4种方案均能大致模拟出我国东南沿海及台湾海峡地区降水的空间结构和季节变化特征。其中,Fritsch-Chappell方案和MIT-Emanuel方案均能较好地模拟出降水空间分布,包括台湾岛南部和广东沿海的降水极值中心,而MIT-Emanuel方案降水的季节和年际变化特征模拟最好,如能够基本再现夏季降水在6月和8月份的双峰结构。此外,基于各高度层假相当位温的计算结果表明,MIT-Emanuel方案模拟的对流活动强烈,产生的对流性降水较多,使得其模拟的降水量值更接近实测资料。因此,MIT-Emanuel方案可能是最适用于模拟我国东南沿海和台湾海峡地区降水的积云对流参数化方案。  相似文献   

Systematic errors in the medium range prediction of the Asian summer monsoon circulation     

U. C. Mohanty  K. J. Ramesh 《Journal of Earth System Science》1995,104(1):49-77

The present study describes an analysis of Asian summer monsoon forecasts with an operational general circulation model (GCM) of the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), U.K. An attempt is made to examine the influence of improved treatment of physical processes on the reduction of systematic errors. As some of the major changes in the parameterization of physical processes, such as modification to the infrared radiation scheme, deep cumulus convection scheme, introduction of the shallow convection scheme etc., were introduced during 1985–88, a thorough systematic error analysis of the ECMWF monsoon forecasts is carried out for a period prior to the incorporation of such changes i.e. summer monsoon season (June–August) of 1984, and for the corresponding period after relevant changes were implemented (summer monsoon season of 1988). Monsoon forecasts of the ECMWF demonstrate an increasing trend of forecast skill after the implementation of the major changes in parameterizations of radiation, convection and land-surface processes. Further, the upper level flow is found to be more predictable than that of the lower level and wind forecasts display a better skill than temperature. Apart from this, a notable increase in the magnitudes of persistence error statistics indicates that the monsoon circulation in the analysed fields became more intense with the introduction of changes in the operational forecasting system. Although, considerable reduction in systematic errors of the Asian summer monsoon forecasts is observed (up to day-5) with the introduction of major changes in the treatment of physical processes, the nature of errors remain unchanged (by day-10). The forecast errors of temperature and moisture in the middle troposphere are also reduced due to the changes in treatment of longwave radiation. Moreover, the introduction of shallow convection helped it further by enhancing the vertical transports of heat and moisture from the lower troposphere. Though, the hydrological cycle in the operational forecasts appears to have enhanced with the major modifications and improvements to the physical parameterization schemes, certain regional peculiarities have developed in the simulated rainfall distribution over the monsoon region. Hence, this study suggests further attempts to improve the formulations of physical processes for further reduction of systematic forecast errors.  相似文献   

A SIMPLE PROGNOSTIC CLOSURE ASSUMPTION TO DEEP CONVECTIVE PARAMETERIZATION:I          下载免费PDF全文

Chen Dehui  Philippe Bougeault 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》1993,7(1):1-18

In this work,the problem of dependency of the predicted rainfall upon the grid-size in mesoscale numerical weatherprediction models is addressed.We argue that this problem is due to (i) the violation of the quasi-equilibrium assump-tion,which is underlying most existing convective parameterization schemes,and states that the convective activity maybe considered in instantaneous equilibrium with the larger-scale forcing;and (ii) the violation of the hydrostatic approx-imation,made in most mesoscale models,which would induce too large-scale circulation in occurrence of strong con-vection.On the contrary,meso-β and meso-α scale models,i.e.models with horizontal grid size ranging from 10 to 100km,have a capacity to resolve motions with characteristic scales close to the ones of the convective motions.Wehypothesize that a possible way to eliminate this problem is (i) to take a prognostic approach to the parameterization ofdeep convection,whereby the quantities that describe the activity of convection are no longer diagnosed from the instan-taneous value of the large-scale forcing,but predicted by time-dependent equations,that integrate the large-scale forc-ing over time;(ii)to introduce a mesoscale parameter which varies systematically with the grid size of the numericalmodel in order to damp large-scale circulation usually too induced when the grid size becomes smaller (from 100 km to10 kin).We propose an implementation of this idea in the frame of one existing scheme,already tested and used for along time at the French Weather Service.The results of the test through one-dimensional experiments with the Phase Ⅲof GATE data are reported in this paper;and the ones on its implementation in the three-dimensional model with theOSCAR data will be reported in a companion paper.  相似文献   

THE FORMATION AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF CAMS TWO-DIMENSIONAL DYNAMICAL-PHYSICAL CLIMATE MODEL          下载免费PDF全文

Li Weiliang  Gong Wei  Wang Wei-Chyung 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》1993,7(2):129-146

In the paper,we have developed a 2-D physical-dynamical coupled climate model.Some sensitive experiments have been done by use of this model.First of all,we have studied the effects of different results by two radiational calculation schemes on circulation variation.The calculated results have shown that the different radiation parameterization schemes give different results,therefore the variational effects of wind,temperature,and humidity field are presented on the medium-range circulation variation.Besides,we have also studied the role of the meridional eddy momentum fluxes in formation of the monsoon over East Asia.The results of study have shown that on the average,the roles of meridional eddy flux of momentum formative processes of monsoon which is added to momentum equations by using the scheme of moist process parameterization with plateau are manifest.  相似文献   

A SIMPLE PROGNOSTIC CLOSURE ASSUMPTION TO DEEP CONVECTIVE PARAMETERIZATION:Ⅱ          下载免费PDF全文

Chen Dehui  Philippe Bougeault 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》1993,7(2):212-223

A series of 3D predictions,dealing with the development of a heavy storm observed during the OSCAR experiment,were carried out by utilizing the PERIDOT model,and introducing alternatively the cumulus parameterization scheme of Bougeault (1985) and the prognostic one (Chen,1989;Chen and Bougeault,1993),with three different grid sizes:160 km,80 km,40 km.The feasibility of the new prognostic scheme and its improvement on the problem of dependency of the predicted rainfall upon the grid size of the numerical model were verified by comparison of the rainfall observed and those predicted.The results demonstrate that,in general,the predicted rainfall increases when the grid size decreases for both diagnostic and prognostic schemes.However,with the new prognostic scheme,the numerical model is capable,on the one hand,for the larger grid sizes,to increase the rainfall,which is under-estimated with the scheme of Bougeault (1985);on the another hand,for the smaller grid sizes,to reduce the rainfall,which is usually over-estimated.In other word,there is an obvious improvement on the problem under study.  相似文献   

Velocity model inversion using parametric curves     

Alberto Michelini 《Geophysical Journal International》1993,115(2):337-343

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